A Record-Breaking State of the Union
The 2026 US State of the Union address lasted over 100 minutes, setting a new historical record. This surpassed the previous record of 89 minutes set by Bill Clinton in 2000 and exceeded Donald Trump’s longest speech in 2019, which lasted 82 minutes.
A Successful Prediction Market Bet
On the prediction market Polymarket, an account with an 86% win rate in political bets placed $9,000 on the outcome that the 2026 State of the Union speech would reach or exceed 100 minutes. Despite odds as low as 42% before the result was confirmed, the bet ultimately paid off.
The Power of Prediction Markets
This event highlights the potential of prediction markets in forecasting real-world outcomes. While many participants underestimated the likelihood of a record-breaking speech length, this high-accuracy account demonstrated the unique value of market-based predictions.