Barclays Predicts: U.S. Treasury Issuance to Remain Stable for Two Consecutive Years

U.S. Treasury Issuance May Stay Unchanged for Two Years

According to the latest report from Barclays, the U.S. Treasury is expected to keep its coupon bond issuance steady for the upcoming quarter and the entire FY2026. This projection aligns with prior policy signals, indicating that Treasury issuance has remained unchanged since the last increase in early 2024.

Underlying Fiscal Pressures Persist

Analyst Dhiraj Narula highlighted ongoing fiscal challenges, noting that annual deficits nearing $2 trillion continue to place pressure on Treasury operations. While current issuance levels remain flat, market participants should remain vigilant for potential changes.

Potential Adjustments Still on the Horizon

Narula also pointed out that the Treasury indicated in November of last year that it had started exploring the possibility of expanding issuance. The upcoming quarterly refunding announcement may provide further insight into these potential shifts.