Prediction Markets Poised to Become Robinhood's Next Billion-Dollar Business

A new analysis from Bernstein paints a bullish picture for Robinhood's emerging prediction markets segment. According to the firm's latest projections, this business line could generate up to $1.7 billion in revenue for the trading platform by 2028.

Outpacing Crypto to Claim a Core Revenue Stream

This forecast suggests that prediction markets will eclipse Robinhood's cryptocurrency operations in revenue by that year, with crypto business revenue estimated at $1.6 billion for 2028. The $1.7 billion from prediction markets would represent roughly 18% of Robinhood's total projected revenue of $9.4 billion for that year, solidifying its status as a major pillar of growth.

The growth trajectory is steep, with revenue expected to surge from approximately $650 million in 2024 to the $1.7 billion target, indicating rapid market adoption and expansion.

Broader Upward Revisions and a Bullish Stance

Citing strength across multiple business lines, Bernstein also raised its revenue estimates for Robinhood in the coming years:

  • 2026 Revenue Forecast: Increased by 3%
  • 2027 Revenue Forecast: Increased by 4%
  • 2028 Revenue Forecast: Increased by 3%

The firm maintained its $160 price target for Robinhood stock. For the upcoming quarterly earnings report, analysts anticipate a roughly 13% quarter-over-quarter revenue increase to about $1.5 billion. This growth is attributed to higher stock trading volumes, increased options and event contract activity, and a recovery in crypto trading.

Market Context and Strategic Implications

Ahead of the report, Robinhood's shares traded at $93.60 in pre-market activity on Monday. While the stock has declined over 29% in the past 12 months, this new analysis offers a longer-term view on the company's potential growth engines.

The significant forecast for prediction markets highlights Robinhood's strategic push beyond traditional brokerage services into more interactive, event-driven financial products. It signals a growing investor appetite for such innovative trading avenues and their substantial revenue potential.