Bitcoin Holder Cost Structure Reveals Source of Market Pressure

Recent on-chain data from Glassnode indicates two key Bitcoin holder cohorts remain in an overall unrealized loss position. Their average acquisition costs sit significantly above current market prices, directly shaping the current landscape of selling pressure.

Cost Distribution Across Holding Periods

The data shows investors holding Bitcoin for 1 to 2 years have an average purchase price around $97,000. Those with a shorter holding period of 6 to 12 months have a slightly lower average cost basis of approximately $89,000. These figures clearly map the cost basis of major buying activity over the past 18 months.

When market prices persistently trade below these key cost levels, psychological and financial strain accumulates among holders. For investors who established positions at relatively high prices, each market downturn potentially triggers stop-loss or reduction decisions.

Divergence in Selling Behavior Emerges

Notably, investors who bought at different times are exhibiting markedly distinct selling patterns.

  • High-Price Buyers Sell Actively: Investors who purchased near the peak of the 2025 rally are currently the most active selling cohort. Their daily outflow volume has reached annual highs, indicating strong distribution intent.
  • Low-Price Buyers Remain Steadier: In contrast, investors who bought during subsequent market corrections show significantly lower selling pressure. These holders are either still in profit or have limited unrealized losses, reducing their urgency to exit.

How Cost Basis Influences Market Behavior

Glassnode's analysis suggests entry price is becoming a critical variable influencing Bitcoin holder decisions. When prices linger below cost basis, investor patience gradually erodes. This is particularly true for leveraged traders or those requiring liquidity, as maintaining underwater positions becomes increasingly difficult.

This cost-based divergence in selling behavior provides important reference levels for market support and resistance. The $97,000 and $89,000 cost clusters may become key psychological battlegrounds for bulls and bears.

Market participants should watch whether prices can sustainably break above these high-cost concentration zones, which could trigger short covering and new capital inflows. Conversely, persistent rejection at these levels suggests continued distribution pressure from peak-cycle buyers may weigh on price performance.