Bitcoin Market Faces New Turning Point
According to recent analysis from Glassnode, Bitcoin's Hash Ribbon indicator is approaching a critical juncture that could signal the end of the miner capitulation phase. This would mark one of the longest miner capitulation periods in history.
Understanding the Market Signal
A recovery signal will be triggered when the 30-day moving average of hash rate moves above the 60-day average. This typically indicates miners gradually resuming operations and reduced network pressure.
- In November last year when the indicator first reversed, Bitcoin was trading around $90,000
- The price dropped to a low of $60,000 in early February
- Bitcoin has now rebounded to around $65,000
Miner Behavior and Market Cycles
When mining revenue falls below operating costs, inefficient miners shut down operations and sell Bitcoin reserves, creating market pressure. However, historical data shows these capitulation events often coincide with significant market bottoms.
Current Market Position
Bitcoin is currently trading below the estimated average production cost of $66,000. The last time this price-cost inversion occurred was in November 2022, when Bitcoin found a bottom near $15,500.