Bitcoin's Valuation Shift
Renowned on-chain analyst Willy Woo recently pointed out that Bitcoin's 12-year valuation trend against gold has shifted. BTC should have maintained a higher value, but investor sentiment has priced in quantum computing risks early.
The Threat of 4M BTC Reemerging
Though Bitcoin may eventually adopt quantum-resistant signatures, approximately 4 million BTC from early wallets with weaker private key protection could be decrypted by quantum computers, creating major market pressure if reintroduced.
Freezing Through Hard Fork Unlikely
Woo estimates only a 25% chance that the Bitcoin community would freeze these potentially resurfacing coins via hard fork, meaning markets must prepare for the 4M BTC supply shock now.
Supply Dilution Outpaces Institutional Accumulation
Since 2020, corporate and ETF accumulation reached around 2.8 million BTC. The 4M 'lost' coins equal 8 years of institutional buying, posing a significant dilution risk to Bitcoin's scarcity narrative.
Cloud Over BTC Until Q-Day
Although quantum computers may not threaten Bitcoin for another 5–15 years, Woo notes markets are already reacting. BTC prices could remain under pressure until the network adapts to quantum-resistant protocols.