Short-Term Momentum Builds as Bitcoin Eyes Key Resistance
Bitcoin is showing early signs of a potential rally in early 2024, with on-chain models suggesting a bottom formed around December 24, 2023. Although price reactions typically lag by 2–3 weeks, recent market behavior aligns with this outlook.
A key positive development is the revival of paper liquidity in futures markets after months of stagnation—mirroring conditions seen in mid-2021 ahead of the previous cycle’s second peak. Holding the $98K–$100K resistance zone will be crucial. A breakout could open the path toward retesting all-time highs.
Liquidity Concerns Cloud 2026 Outlook
- Since January 2025, liquidity growth has weakened relative to price momentum, signaling a potential disconnect.
- The market now sits in a late-cycle ‘hot zone,’ where rallies lack deep structural support.
- Sustained spot market inflows, especially from long-term investors, are needed to shift the macro trend.
Importantly, a bear market has not yet been confirmed. True bearish confirmation would require persistent outflows from Bitcoin holdings—a lagging indicator of cycle peaks. For now, investor focus should remain on real-money participation and on-chain capital flows.