Quantum Threat May Be Overstated
As quantum computing progresses, Bitcoin's security has come under renewed scrutiny. CoinShares recently stated that while practical quantum computers may emerge in the future, the actual threats they pose to Bitcoin's network remain foreseeable and manageable.
Technical Challenges and Potential Risks
Quantum computers might use Shor's algorithm to break ECDSA or Schnorr signatures, exposing private keys. Grover's algorithm could theoretically weaken SHA-256's security. However, the main affected area is early P2PK addresses holding about 1.7 million BTC, or just 8% of total supply, making a short-term systemic market impact unlikely.
Market Fears Are Overblown
Claims that 'about 25% of supply is at risk' are considered exaggerated. Many potential risks can be mitigated by migrating to new addresses. Even in the case of private key leaks, the estimated BTC entering the market would be around 10,000 coins, with limited impact on price stability.
Long-Term Threats Require Preparation
While quantum attacks might become theoretically feasible within the next decade, short-term attacks—like cracking private keys within 10 minutes in the mempool—remain impractical for decades. Even under optimistic assumptions, a full-scale attack would take decades, giving holders ample time to move funds to more secure addresses.