Quantum Threats Overestimated
Recently, a16z Crypto released an in-depth report titled 'Quantum Computing and Blockchains: Matching Urgency to Actual Threats.' The report highlights that timelines for fault-tolerant quantum computers capable of breaking cryptocurrency encryption are widely overstated, with minimal likelihood of emergence before 2030. Current cryptographic algorithms like digital signatures and zkSNARKs demonstrate strong resistance against 'harvest now, decrypt later' attacks.
Protocol and Governance Risks More Urgent
For major public blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum, more immediate challenges lie in protocol upgrade coordination, governance complexity, and implementation-level vulnerabilities. Rushing blockchain migration would not only incur performance costs but also lead to immature implementations and new code defects.
Developers Should Focus on Real Threats
The report emphasizes that security issues like code vulnerabilities, side-channel attacks, and fault injection attacks should be prioritized. Developers are advised to invest in code audits, fuzz testing, and formal verification to systematically enhance on-chain security. While quantum resistance requires forward planning, immediate switchover is unnecessary.