CIA Predicts: Hardline Forces Would Take Over Even If Khamenei Is Struck

Background Analysis

In light of potential strikes by the US and Israel, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has assessed that even if Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei were killed in an attack, his successor would likely come from hardline factions within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Scope of Assessment

This intelligence review was completed over the past two weeks and considered various scenarios that might emerge following US military involvement, particularly whether strikes could lead to a change in Iran's ruling regime — a key strategic concern for Washington.

No Definitive Conclusions

According to insiders, while the CIA explored multiple possibilities, the report did not commit to any specific outcome, highlighting the high level of uncertainty surrounding such a scenario.