Trump's Tariff Policy Ruled Illegal
According to the latest data from the prediction market platform Polymarket, the likelihood that a court will order Trump to refund tariffs by July 2026 stands at just 19%, while the probability of rejection has surged to 82%.
Prior to this, the US Supreme Court ruled Trump's trade tax policy illegal by a 6 to 3 vote. The court pointed out that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the president the authority to impose such tariffs. This decision upheld a lower court ruling from the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals, which had already declared Trump's tariffs unlawful.
Trump's Response to the Supreme Court Ruling
In response to the ruling, Trump publicly called it a disgrace, emphasizing that he had prepared alternative trade policy measures following the decision. This statement signals his intent to maintain a strong stance on trade policy, even in the face of legal challenges.
Market Outlook on Future Developments
Currently, the market broadly believes that the chances of a court ultimately ordering Trump to refund tariffs are extremely low. This reflects investor skepticism about the speed of legal proceedings and the effectiveness of actual enforcement.
- The Supreme Court clearly rejected the legality of Trump's tariffs.
- Market expectations for a refund stand below 20%.
- Trump has prepared alternative trade policy measures.
In summary, this ruling not only influences trade policy but also has far-reaching implications for the US legal system and international economic relations.