Economist Predicts 88% Chance of Bitcoin Rising by Year-End

Bitcoin Shows Structural Bullish Signal

Despite the ongoing bear market correction, economist Timothy Peterson's latest analysis suggests that Bitcoin still maintains strong upside potential. Historical data indicates that in the past 24 months, Bitcoin has achieved positive returns in 50% of all months, suggesting a higher probability of a turning point emerging in any given 24-month cycle.

Market Sentiment Hits Extreme Low

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $68,173, nearly 25% below its annual high, erasing most of the post-election gains from the 2024-2025 cycle. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen to just 9 points, entering the 'Extreme Fear' zone, while social media activity and speculative interest have cooled down significantly.

Outlook: Turning Point on the Horizon

Based on the current cycle model, Peterson estimates an 88% probability that Bitcoin will trade higher than its current level within the next 10 months. He emphasizes that this model does not suggest a prolonged downtrend but rather indicates that the market may be approaching a key inflection point.