Fed's January Rate Decision: Hold Likely
Recent market indicators suggest a 95% probability the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady in January. This points to a temporary pause in monetary tightening, offering stability for borrowers and financial markets.
Rate Cuts Pushed to Late First Quarter
While speculation about easing persists, the first cut is now more likely in March. The odds of a 25-basis-point reduction by then stand at 26%, while a hold remains the most probable scenario at 72.8%. A 50-basis-point cut is nearly off the table, with just a 1.2% chance, signaling a cautious path ahead.
- January rate hold: 95% likelihood
- March cumulative 25bps cut: 26%
- March no change: 72.8% probability
The Fed appears to be in wait-and-see mode, prioritizing data before making its next move.