Recent market projections indicate a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January. This reflects a cautious stance amid persistent inflationary pressures and uncertain economic signals.
January Pause Widely Expected
While some investors hoped for an early rate cut, the odds of a 25-basis-point reduction in January stand at just 5%. This suggests broad consensus that the central bank will remain patient before altering its current policy path.
A Shift Possible by March?
Looking ahead, the chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut by March has reached 20.7%, while the likelihood of steady rates remains dominant at 78.4%. A 50-basis-point cut is nearly off the table, with only a 0.9% probability.
- Rate hold in January: 95%
- Cumulative 25bp cut by March: 20.7%
- Rates unchanged by March: 78.4%
These figures highlight a gradual build-up in easing expectations, though the Fed is expected to remain data-dependent. Key economic reports on inflation, employment, and growth will likely steer its next move.