Latest Forecast on Fed Interest Rate Decisions
According to the latest data from CME, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March is as high as 96%, with only a 4% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut.
Analysis of Rate Cut Expectations in the Coming Months
Looking ahead, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut in April is 17.3%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged stands at 82.1%. The chance of a 50-basis-point rate cut is only 0.6%.
Rate Trends by June
Data indicates that by June, the probability of the Fed implementing a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut rises to 46.8%. This suggests that market expectations for a looser monetary policy remain in the medium-term outlook.
Market Impact and Investment Strategies
- Short-term rate stability may support a stronger US dollar.
- Investors should focus on the meetings in April and June, where policy shifts are more likely.
- Keep a close eye on inflation data and employment reports, as these will be key factors influencing rate decisions.
In summary, the Fed’s stance of keeping rates steady in the short term has become a consensus, but a looser policy approach may still emerge in the medium to long term to support economic growth.