Analysis of the Fed's Recent Rate Trends
According to the latest data from CME Group's 'Fed Watch,' there is an 80.4% probability the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in its March policy meeting, with only a 19.6% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut.
Policy Expectations for the Coming Months
Looking ahead, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut at the April meeting stands at 36%, while the chance of rates remaining steady is at 58.8%. A 50-basis-point cut in April has only a 5.3% probability. By June, market expectations for a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut rise to 49.3%.
- Probability of holding rates in March: 80.4%
- Probability of 25-bps cut by April: 36%
- Probability of 25-bps cut by June: 49.3%
These figures reflect cautious market expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy, indicating limited room for near-term adjustments.