March Rate Cut Expectations Fade
New data shows the Federal Reserve has only a 2% chance of cutting rates by 25 basis points in March. Market expectations strongly indicate the current interest rate will remain unchanged, with a 98% probability.
Rate Cut Timeline Shifts
While immediate action appears unlikely, investors are beginning to price in future cuts. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut by April stands at 15.9%, rising to 39.5% ahead of June.
Policy Outlook
- Rate hold likely to continue through April with 83.8% probability
- Significant 50-basis-point cuts before June seen as highly improbable
- Market密切关注inflation and employment data trends