The Fed is Likely to Keep Interest Rates Unchanged in March, with Growing Expectations for Future Rate Cuts

Outlook for the Fed's Recent Interest Rate Decisions

Latest market data indicates a 91.1% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its March monetary policy meeting. This suggests that monetary policy will remain stable in the short term, with investors closely watching further developments.

Rate Cut Expectations for the Coming Months

By April, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut rises to 22.5%. While still relatively modest, this reflects growing market expectations for a potential easing of monetary policy.

Mid-Year Outlook and Market Reactions

By June, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut reaches 45.9%. This suggests that market participants broadly anticipate the Fed will gradually implement accommodative measures by mid-year.