Fed Likely to Keep Interest Rates Unchanged in March with 94.1% Probability

Recent Trends in Fed Rate Decisions

Latest market forecasts show a high probability of 94.1% that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady in March, with only a 5.9% chance of a 25-basis-point cut.

Monetary Policy Outlook for the Coming Months

Looking ahead, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut by April rises to 20.5%, while the chance of no change remains at 78.5%. By June, the probability of a 25-basis-point cut nears 50%, reaching 49.8%.

How Markets Are Interpreting This Outlook

Overall, markets expect the Fed to remain cautious in the near term but anticipate a gradual shift toward looser policy as the middle of the year approaches.