Fed Likely to Keep Rates Unchanged in March, Rate Cut Expectations Grow for Future

Fed's Near-Term Interest Rate Outlook

Latest market data suggests the Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged in March, with a 90.2% probability. A 25-basis-point rate cut is currently priced in at just 9.8%.

Rate Cut Likelihood in the Coming Months

Looking ahead, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut by April has increased to 26.4%. By June, the market expectation for a cumulative 25-basis-point rate reduction strengthens further, reaching 51.8%.

• March rate cut probability: 9.8%
• April cumulative 25-bps cut probability: 26.4%
• June cumulative 25-bps cut probability: 51.8%