Analysis of Recent Fed Rate Decision Odds
Recent data indicates that the Federal Reserve has a high probability of 84.7% of keeping interest rates unchanged in March, while the chance of a 25-basis-point cut stands at 15.3%. Moving into April, the probability of cumulative rate cuts reaching 25 basis points rises to 29%, with a 68% chance of rates remaining unchanged, and a 3% chance of cumulative cuts reaching 50 basis points.
By June, the likelihood of cumulative rate reductions hitting 25 basis points further increases to 49.5%. This data reflects the growing market expectations regarding the Fed's future monetary policy adjustments.
Market Expectations Evolve
While the Fed is more inclined to maintain the status quo in the short term, the possibility of rate cuts is steadily increasing as the economic environment changes. From April to June, market expectations for easing monetary policy significantly rise, indicating some investor concerns about the economic outlook.
- March rate hold probability: 84.7%
- March 25-basis-point cut probability: 15.3%
- April cumulative 25-basis-point cut probability: 29%
- June cumulative 25-basis-point cut probability: 49.5%