Policy Shift to Wait-and-See

According to recent reports, Fed officials are expected to hold rates steady, marking the first pause since three consecutive cuts last September. The key question now is what conditions would trigger further cuts.

Inflation and Jobs: A Dual Challenge

The Fed is closely monitoring whether inflation will notably fall to the 2% target and whether the job market will weaken. Neither key indicator has met expectations yet.

  • Inflation remains above target level
  • Labor market hasn't notably softened
  • Officials hold differing views

Outlook for Policy Moves

Despite pressure from the White House for rate cuts, the Fed committee remains cautious overall. While most members believe cuts could still happen later this year, there is no consensus on timing.