Federal Reserve Likely to Hold Interest Rates Steady in March with 91.1% Probability

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook

New data from CME Group suggests a strong market expectation that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March, with a probability of 91.1%. This indicates that investors are anticipating a period of policy stability in the near term.

Rate Cut Expectations for the Coming Months

The probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut by April stands at 22.5%, while the chance of maintaining the current rate is 76.0%. By June, the market estimates a 46% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate reduction.

Market Response and Future Outlook

Although there is a gradual increase in expectations for looser monetary policy, the overall sentiment remains cautious. Investors are closely watching for signals from the Fed to assess the direction of the economy.