Rates Must Hold: Inflation Still the Top Threat
Despite signs of slowing growth, Fed official Schmid insists policy must remain restrictive enough to keep inflation on a sustained downward path. He stresses that a cooling labor market shouldn’t automatically trigger rate cuts, especially when price pressures remain entrenched.
Job Market Shifts: Cyclical Dip or Structural Change?
Schmid argues that hiring softness isn’t just a temporary downturn, but the result of deeper forces—accelerating automation, demographic aging, and long-term shifts in immigration policy. These factors are fundamentally altering labor demand across sectors.
- Automation is displacing routine and mid-skill jobs
- An aging workforce tightens labor supply
- Immigration barriers limit inflows of skilled talent
The Limits of Rate Cuts: Avoiding Policy Mistakes
He warns that premature easing could erode credibility in the Fed’s 2% inflation commitment. There’s real risk that lower rates reignite inflation expectations, undoing hard-won progress.
Schmid underscores that the Fed’s tools are best suited for cyclical downturns, not structural imbalances. Solving today’s labor challenges requires broader reforms—education, retraining, and immigration—not just monetary policy.