Complex Causes Behind the Price Drop

Recently, Bitcoin's price dropped below $60,000, drawing significant market attention. Matthew Sigel, VanEck's Head of Digital Asset Research, noted that this decline was not due to a single factor but a combination of multiple pressures. Unlike previous drops, this round of market correction lacks a clear trigger, making bottom prediction more challenging.

  • Deleveraging: The open interest in futures contracts once exceeded $90 billion, but it has since fallen to around $49 billion, a drop of over 45%.
  • Waning AI Hype: Investor skepticism around the commercial viability of AI has spilled over into the mining sector.
  • Quantum Computing Threats: Although Bitcoin developers downplay the urgency, discussions in the community have become increasingly active.
  • Four-Year Cycle Psychology: The market still gravitates toward the four-year bull-bear narrative, with investor behavior mirroring historical patterns.

Outlook for the Market

Despite the current challenges, the completion of deleveraging could lay the groundwork for a recovery. The release of multiple pressures also means potential resistance for future rebounds may be lower. Investors should take a more rational approach to cyclical fluctuations and monitor fundamental changes closely.