When Will the Bitcoin Bear Market End? Jiang Zhuo'er's Detailed Forecast

Recent market analysis from BTC.top founder Jiang Zhuo'er has drawn significant attention within the cryptocurrency community. His multi-model approach provides specific predictions about the current Bitcoin bear market's trajectory and potential bottom.

Key Indicators Suggest Bottom Proximity

Jiang's analysis highlights that the modified Net Asset Value (mNAV) for certain strategies has declined to 0.72, approaching the historical low of 0.7 recorded during the May 2022 bear market. Considering recent market sentiment events including temporary de-pegging incidents, he believes the market is likely entering the bottom phase of the current cycle.

Historical Cycle-Based Bottom Projection

Using his "four-year cycle" model combined with volatility decay analysis, Jiang proposes a specific timeline:

  • Timing Estimate: Bitcoin may reach its bottom between October and December 2026
  • Price Range: Target bottom price between $42,000 and $44,000
  • Indicator Lead Time: mNAV typically bottoms approximately six months before Bitcoin's price

This projection relies on statistical patterns observed in historical data, particularly Bitcoin's cyclical market behavior.

Current Strategy and Planned Shift

Based on this analytical framework, Jiang disclosed his current tactical approach. He indicated that his medium-to-short-term operations remain focused on selling spot holdings and taking short positions, reflecting caution toward a market he believes hasn't fully bottomed.

He clarified, however, his intended strategy pivot: once the market approaches or reaches the projected bottom range, he plans to shift primarily to buying spot assets and taking long positions. This flexible, phase-dependent strategy demonstrates confidence in his cyclical assessment.

Market Implications and Risk Considerations

While Jiang's forecast offers market participants a concrete timeframe and price reference, all market predictions involve inherent uncertainty. Investors should consider such professional analysis alongside their own risk tolerance and investment objectives. Historical patterns provide valuable insight, but the cryptocurrency market's high volatility means actual movements may diverge from projections.