In a recent update, JPMorgan has revised its outlook on the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory. Previously, the firm had anticipated a 25 basis-point rate cut in early 2026, but this expectation has now been removed from its forecast.
The latest analysis indicates that JPMorgan now sees a rate hike more likely occurring in the third quarter of 2027, with the adjustment expected to be 25 basis points.
This shift reflects a reassessment of the U.S. economic outlook and inflation control measures. Analysts note that future Fed decisions will heavily depend on incoming macroeconomic data.
Market Response and Outlook
Despite the shift in expectations, markets have reacted calmly, with investors closely watching both Fed guidance and evolving economic indicators.
- No rate cuts expected in 2026
- Rate hike window moves to Q3 2027
- Policy moves will depend on inflation and employment data