A Deepening Structural Imbalance in Memory Chips
A recent analysis from South Korea’s financial sector has highlighted a critical juncture for the global semiconductor supply chain. According to Meritz Securities, memory chip manufacturers are holding orders for 2027-2028 that already exceed their planned production capacity, signaling a supply crisis that is structural rather than cyclical.
Persistently Low Order Fill Rates Fuel Price Pressure
The report notes that the order fill rate—the ratio of available supply to booked demand—has remained at a low 80%-85% throughout this year. This metric starkly illustrates the widening gap between capacity and demand, serving as a key driver behind sustained price increases. The situation is projected to worsen, with the fill rate potentially dropping to around 80% by 2027.
Political Shifts Unlikely to Alter Core Dynamics
While some market observers have pointed to potential policy impacts from U.S. political changes, the analysis suggests these are secondary. Even if shifts in the political landscape lead to delays in some data center projects, such adjustments are not expected to resolve the fundamental shortage. The root cause remains the explosive demand from AI and cloud computing, which continues to outpace capacity expansion.
Major Clients Locking in Future Supply
The intensity of demand is evident in the actions of leading technology firms. During a recent visit to South Korea, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman reportedly requested guaranteed supply of customized memory products, including high-bandwidth memory, from SK hynix and Samsung Electronics for the 2027-2030 period. The scale of this demand is said to surpass the combined planned capacity of both companies, indicating that a fierce competition for future advanced chip supply is already underway.
The memory chip market appears to be transitioning from a period of cyclical tightness to a new normal defined by long-term order backlogs and structural capacity shortages. For technology companies downstream, securing reliable chip supply has become a strategic imperative for future competitiveness.