The Memory Market Enters a New Growth Era

A recent research report from Goldman Sachs highlights robust momentum building in the Dynamic Random-Access Memory (DRAM) and High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) markets. Observations from market analysis firm TrendForce indicate that while consumer electronics demand remains muted, powerful demand from servers and data centers, coupled with cautious supply expansion, is creating a structurally tight environment for memory chips.

Price Trajectory and Supply Dynamics

The report suggests that the upward trend in DRAM prices is expected to persist through the first half of 2028. A significant market shift is the potential increase in Long-Term Agreement (LTA) coverage, which could reach 60% to 70% in certain segments. This rise in contracted supply reflects buyer concerns over future availability and signals potentially reduced price volatility, albeit at a higher baseline price level.

  • Key Drivers: AI training/inference and cloud infrastructure build-out are the primary catalysts.
  • Supply Constraints: Complexity in advanced node transitions and prudent capital expenditure are limiting rapid capacity growth.
  • Market Implication: Cyclical softness in consumer electronics is being counterbalanced by long-term growth in enterprise demand.

HBM Market Poised for Explosive Growth

High Bandwidth Memory, a critical component for high-performance computing and AI chips, presents a particularly bright outlook. The report forecasts that the blended average selling price for HBM is projected to surge approximately 122% year-over-year by 2027, reaching around $3.7 per Gb. This strong pricing power, combined with rapid shipment growth, is expected to propel global HBM revenue to increase by over 230% next year, potentially pushing the total market size beyond $200 billion.

This projection is grounded in HBM's indispensable role in next-generation AI accelerators, GPUs, and high-performance servers. As AI model parameters grow exponentially, the demand for memory bandwidth and capacity follows suit, directly driving the iteration and adoption of HBM technology.

Investment Outlook on Industry Leaders

Based on its positive long-term view of the sector, Goldman Sachs provided favorable assessments of two major memory manufacturers. The firm reaffirmed its 'Buy' rating on Samsung Electronics, with a 12-month target price of 500,000 Korean Won per share. The target price for Samsung Electronics' preferred shares was maintained at 380,000 Won.

For fellow memory leader SK Hynix, Goldman Sachs also maintained a 'Buy' rating, setting a 12-month target price of 3.5 million Won per share. These ratings reflect the analysts' view that leading players stand to benefit significantly from the industry upcycle, particularly translating their technological leadership in the high-value-added HBM segment into financial gains.

In summary, the current memory market appears to be at the start of a structural growth phase driven by AI and data center demand, rather than a mere cyclical recovery. Supply tightness and rapid technological evolution are likely to reshape the industry's competitive landscape and profitability for years to come.