Yen Surge Sparks Intervention Speculation
Moody's analyst Stefan Angrick recently pointed out that the sharp rise in the yen last Friday has sparked speculation about official intervention. However, there are currently no clear signs that the Japanese authorities have taken action. Angrick emphasized that while the Japanese Ministry of Finance typically delays the release of intervention data, other indicators such as the Bank of Japan's accounts and currency brokers' estimates can often provide early clues.
Absence of Early Signals of Intervention
Angrick noted that these indicators accurately predicted intervention in July 2024, but there are no similar signs this time. This suggests that despite the strong rise in the yen, the Japanese authorities may not have intervened in the market yet.
Threat of Intervention Alone May Influence Markets
Notably, Angrick also stated that governments do not always need to take actual intervention measures to influence markets. A credible threat of coordinated action, especially in the context of Japan-US cooperation, could be sufficient to have a significant impact on the market.
Status of USD/JPY Exchange Rate
Currently, the USD/JPY pair is trading around 152.54, still some distance from the 160 level that is considered a potential trigger for intervention. This suggests that the market is still monitoring the situation, and the Japanese authorities may be taking a wait-and-see approach for now.