Northeast Securities Lays Out Valuation Case: CXMT's Value Range at 3.2-5.7 Trillion Yuan

Following CXMT's market debut, Northeast Securities has released a comprehensive valuation report. Moving beyond single-method estimates, the firm employed a triple-methodology cross-verification approach, arriving at a substantial and well-supported fair value range of 3.2 to 5.7 trillion yuan for the memory chip maker.

The Tri-Model Cross-Verification Framework

To ensure analytical rigor, the report built a multi-dimensional valuation framework.

  • Market Share Anchoring: This method evaluates CXMT's value by comparing its current and projected global memory market share against the market capitalizations of established international peers.
  • Earnings-Based PE Analysis: Valuation is derived from detailed forecasts of the company's future earnings, applied with industry-appropriate price-to-earnings multiples.
  • Per-Unit Capacity Value: Focusing on the core manufacturing asset, this approach assesses the market value attributable to each unit of production capacity.

By converging conclusions from these distinct perspectives—market positioning, earnings power, and asset efficiency—the reported valuation range gains significant credibility.

The Critical Adjustment: Accounting for Minority Interest

The analysis highlights a crucial financial nuance. CXMT's minority interest share of net profit is projected to reach 73.76% in 2025, a figure drastically higher than that of giants like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron (all below 1%). A substantial portion of reported net income, therefore, does not accrue to parent company shareholders.

Valuing the parent equity based on unadjusted net profit would lead to significant overstatement. Northeast Securities' model incorporates an adjustment, assuming a 24% minority interest share for 2026-2027, to isolate the value attributable to the parent. The final 3.2-5.7 trillion yuan range reflects this essential refinement.

Market Implications: Refining the Value Proposition of a Memory Leader

The report's significance extends beyond the headline numbers. It establishes a professional framework for assessing CXMT and similar semiconductor manufacturers, emphasizing the need for deep financial scrutiny in complex ownership structures. The wide valuation range acknowledges both the company's strategic role in supply chain localization and its growth potential, while also factoring in uncertainties like technology cycles and market volatility. It provides investors with a solid foundation for independent analysis.