Over 80% Chance Fed Will Keep Rates Unchanged in March, Market Outlook Cautious

Fed Rate Decision Probability Analysis

Latest data from CME shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady in March has reached 86.5%, with only a 13.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut.

Looking ahead to April, the market outlook is slightly more open to rate cuts, but still cautious. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by April stands at 24.1%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged remains at 74%. The chance of a 50 basis point cut is only 2%.

• March Rate Cut Probability (25 bps): 13.5%
• March Hold Probability: 86.5%
• April Cumulative Rate Cut Probability (25 bps): 24.1%
• April Hold Probability: 74%
• April Cumulative Rate Cut Probability (50 bps): 2%

These figures reflect current market expectations regarding the Fed’s policy direction, indicating a likely cautious and neutral stance in the near term.