Polymarket Predicts 77% Chance of US Government Shutdown Before End of January

Market Sentiment Reflects Rising Shutdown Risk

According to the latest data from Polymarket, the likelihood of a US government shutdown by the end of January has risen to 77%, marking a significant increase over the past 24 hours. Traders are expressing growing concerns over the political deadlock.

Legislative Delays Shape Market Outlook

Earlier remarks by US President Donald Trump suggesting the possibility of another shutdown driven by Democrats have further clouded the outlook. The timeline for the CLARITY Act has become unclear, with industry leaders withdrawing support for the current version of the bill.

• CLARITY Act's legislative path uncertain
• Industry leaders question regulatory direction
• Stablecoin yield negotiations remain stalled

Expert Insights

Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, noted that discussions around stablecoin yields remain at an impasse, with no meaningful compromise in sight. This regulatory limbo continues to impact investor confidence.