Market Expectations Adjust as Rate Cut Odds Fall

New data from Polymarket shows investor expectations around Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 have shifted. The probability of two rate cuts has now dropped to 27%, while the chance of three cuts has also declined to 26%, indicating a notable change in market sentiment.

Trading Volume Hits $4.7 Million

Despite the lower likelihood of aggressive easing, the related prediction market remains highly active. Trading volume has reached $4,728,409, reflecting strong investor interest in the future direction of U.S. monetary policy.

Reasons Behind the Shift in Sentiment

Analysts suggest that recent economic reports showing persistent inflation and resilient growth have reinforced expectations that the Fed may keep interest rates higher for longer, reducing the perceived probability of rate cuts in 2026.