Reuters Survey Reveals European Central Bank Rates May Stay at 2% Long-Term

Long-Term Rate Stability Becomes Likely

According to the latest Reuters survey, the European Central Bank is expected to keep its deposit rate at 2% at least until the end of 2027. This forecast is supported by 66 of the 74 economists surveyed, suggesting the longest period of rate stability since the end of the negative interest rate era before the pandemic.

Inflation Slowdown Sparks Policy Debate

Although inflation dropped to 1.7% in January — the lowest level in 16 months — some policymakers have expressed concerns about excessive price slowdown and urged the ECB to prepare for potential actions. However, most analysts believe the current economic fundamentals still support a status quo.

Geopolitical Risks and Policy Challenges

Despite ongoing global geopolitical risks, most economists agree that domestic economic resilience remains strong enough to offset external uncertainties. Deutsche Bank economists noted that while uncertainty around monetary policy remains high, the ECB still has the capacity to stay on hold.