Risk of Shutdown Drops Significantly
Data from the prediction market platform Polymarket shows that, as of February 14, the probability of a 'US government shutdown this Saturday' has dropped to 2%. This marks a significant decline from earlier peaks, indicating a reduction in market concerns regarding a potential shutdown.
Market Sentiment Stabilizes
Previously, uncertainty around budget negotiations had led the market to price in a higher likelihood of a shutdown. However, as talks have progressed, investor expectations have rapidly adjusted, leading to a re-pricing of the associated contracts. Market participants now believe that a deal before the deadline is increasingly likely.
Trading Volume Surpasses $10 Million
Despite the drop in probability, the total trading volume for this contract has reached approximately $10.78 million, highlighting sustained investor interest. The high level of activity further reflects the public's sensitivity to political and economic developments.
- Polymarket shows probability down to 2%
- Negotiations ease market fears
- Trading volume exceeds $10 million