The Macro Fog Clears, Market Focus Returns to Industry Fundamentals

A series of key macro policy decisions landed this week, providing a tailwind for a market rebound. While the Federal Reserve's rate hike struck a somewhat hawkish tone, this "event passing" has actually reduced near-term macro variables for the market to grapple with. Sentiment appears to be growing less sensitive to macroeconomic noise, with attention shifting back to the intrinsic pricing logic of industries themselves.

Structural Opportunities Within the Economic Data

Recent domestic economic data reveals a pattern of "marginal improvement in production, still-weak aggregate demand, and a continuing divergence between old and new growth drivers." The market has largely priced in the current softness in aggregate figures, while structural strength remains clearly concentrated in technology and exports. Concurrently, although geopolitical tensions persist, their marginal impact is fading, as seen in the retreat of oil prices from recent highs.

Capital Flows Back to Tech, Earnings-Heavy Stocks in the Spotlight

As macro headwinds gradually subside, the technology sector—which underwent significant adjustment and saw its previous overcrowding ease substantially—is once again attracting capital. Data shows the turnover of the TMT sector rebounded to 43% of the total market this week, signaling a clear return of funds.

Amid this shift, market style may be undergoing a subtle change. Pure concept speculation is losing its appeal, while technology heavyweight stocks underpinned by solid earnings could see their value reassessed, potentially leading a catch-up rally.

Market Nears Inflection Point: Key Areas to Watch

Analysis suggests the market may be approaching a critical inflection point. For investment positioning, the following fundamentally-supported directions are worth closer attention:

  • Core Tech Growth Tracks: Particularly hard-tech areas like the AI computing产业链 and CPO (Co-packaged Optics), which have clear long-term industry trends.
  • Resource Price Appreciation Themes: Focus on resource sectors with tight supply-demand dynamics and potential for price increases.
  • Competitive Export Chains: Industries and companies that maintain an edge within global supply chains.

The market's core logic is now pivoting from speculating on macro policy to deeply scrutinizing industrial trends with确定性 and earnings visibility.