US Q4 2025 Growth Forecast Revised to 5.1%: Economic Outlook in Focus

U.S. Growth Forecast Slightly Revised Downward

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow model has updated its projection for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, now estimating a 5.1% annualized rate, down from the previous 5.4%. This adjustment reflects recent signs of moderation in key economic indicators.

Key Drivers Behind the Numbers

Even with the downward revision, a 5.1% growth rate suggests the U.S. economy is on track for strong performance by the end of 2025. Consumer spending resilience, steady service sector expansion, and a tight labor market continue to fuel momentum. However, softer residential investment and inventory growth have weighed on the overall figure.

• Consumer demand remains a primary growth driver
• Manufacturing volatility impacts near-term outlook
• Labor market shows sustained strength

Implications for Policy and Markets

The revised forecast could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory. While inflation continues to ease, robust growth may delay further rate cuts. Investors should watch upcoming employment and CPI data closely to gauge the central bank’s next move.