According to a forecast by the Yale Budget Lab, analyst Chao Deng noted that despite the new 15% tariffs, the U.S.'s current effective tariff rate remains below the pre-Supreme Court ruling level of 16%. After the ruling, the rate dropped to 9.1% before rising to an expected 13.7% today.
It remains unclear how a 2.3 percentage point decrease will impact employment, wage growth, and consumer prices. In contrast, during most of 2025, the effective tariff rate jumped over 10 percentage points, reaching levels unseen in decades.
Economic Impacts of Tariff Increases
While the economic consequences of these tariff hikes were less severe than many economists predicted, they were still significant. According to the New York Federal Reserve, U.S. businesses and consumers bore over 90% of the costs from Trump-era tariffs, prompting some companies to freeze hiring and investments.
An inflation report from January revealed rising prices for tariff-affected goods, including appliances, furniture, and new vehicles, suggesting retailers are passing these costs on to consumers.
- Tariff increases may raise consumer prices
- Businesses could delay hiring and investment
- Households may face higher daily expenses