Recently, crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant posted an analysis on the X platform, warning that USDT is currently under extreme liquidity stress, a condition last seen during the 2022 market bottom. Data shows that net inflows of stablecoins into exchanges have dropped sharply from a high of $616 million in November 2025 to just $27 million, signaling a weakening of marginal buying pressure and shrinking liquidity available for crypto markets.
Additionally, market sentiment on decentralized prediction platform Polymarket reflects growing expectations for further downside in Bitcoin. The probability of Bitcoin dropping below $55,000 has risen to 72%, with related contract trading volume reaching $1.2 billion. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a fall below $50,000 and $45,000 stands at 67% and 47%, with associated trading volumes of approximately $170,000 and $1.4 billion, respectively.
Signs of Liquidity Contraction
As one of the most critical stablecoins in the crypto ecosystem, USDT's liquidity condition is often viewed as a key indicator of market health. The current liquidity stress could undermine market confidence, especially in the context of significant outflows from exchanges.
Market Outlook Turns Bearish
- Increasing probability of Bitcoin dropping below $55,000
- Rising trading volumes on Polymarket contracts
- Higher demand for downside risk hedging among traders
In summary, the crypto market is currently under dual pressure from liquidity tightening and weakening market sentiment, suggesting continued downward pressure on prices in the near term.