Bitcoin Reaches Inflection Point: Signs of a Cycle Reset Emerge
Early 2025 has brought unprecedented structural shifts to the Bitcoin market. On-chain activity reveals a sudden surge in movement among coins dormant for over two years, with nearly $300 billion in long-held supply re-entering circulation. This isn’t just a market correction—it may signal a full-scale cycle reset driven by deep behavioral changes among investors.
‘Crash-Like Selling’ Exposes True Market Sentiment
Between November 15 and December 14, 2025, Bitcoin saw one of the most aggressive sell-offs in five years. A record 1.14 million BTC held long-term flooded the market in just 30 days. Unlike orderly profit-taking, this wave resembled panic-driven liquidation—a ‘crash-style’ distribution often seen at the end of major cycles, indicating not a pause, but a fundamental reset.
On-Chain Metrics Signal Bottom Formation
Critically, long-term holder supply stopped declining in December 2025, stabilizing around 13.6 million BTC. Meanwhile, the LTH/STH supply ratio dipped to -0.53—a level historically tied to major market bottoms. Past occurrences of this signal were followed by stabilization or strong upward momentum, suggesting the worst may already be priced in.
- Dormant coins older than one year reactivated at scale
- Selling pressure peaked in November 2025 with crash-like intensity
- Holding patterns stabilized post-December, signaling reduced fear
- Key ratio entered a proven bottom-zone threshold
First Half of 2025: Accumulation in Progress
The data points to a classic transitional phase. While price action remains range-bound, the underlying structure suggests the cleansing phase is nearing completion. The consolidation from Q1 to Q2 likely represents a critical accumulation window. If history holds, a sustainable upward move could gain traction by Q3, laying the foundation for the next bullish phase.