Is Bitcoin’s Bear Market Cooling Down? Key Indicator Hints at Stabilization

BTC Enters Mid-Bear Consolidation as Selling Pressure Eases

Recent on-chain analysis suggests Bitcoin has transitioned from a phase of intense sell-offs into the middle stage of its bear cycle. The combined NUPL-MVRV indicator now stands at 0.33—still below the typical bottom-range levels near 0.5, yet showing clear signs of stabilization.

Positive Shifts in Market Sentiment Emerge

This metric is widely used to identify market extremes. Readings near 0.5 have historically marked cyclical lows. The current decline and narrowing volatility indicate diminishing panic-driven selling and a shift toward more balanced investor behavior.

• The NUPL-MVRV gauge reflects net unrealized loss across the network
• Past bottoms occurred between 0.45 and 0.55
• A reading of 0.33 suggests the floor isn’t in—but momentum is slowing
• On-chain trends show reduced outflows from long-term holders

While a definitive bottom hasn’t formed, structural improvements are emerging. With improving on-chain fundamentals and clearer macro cues, Bitcoin may be laying the groundwork for the next accumulation phase.