Microismacro: AI Infrastructure Reshaping the Macro Landscape
BlackRock's 2026 Global Outlook highlights how the scale of AI infrastructure investment has become so large that it's influencing macroeconomic trends. Capital spending could reach $5-8 trillion between 2025 and 2030, significantly supporting US growth in 2026 — triple the historical average — even amid a cooling labor market.
Yet key questions remain: Will revenue match investment levels? And how much of the upside will flow back to tech giants? While past tech revolutions haven't broken the US long-term 2% growth trend, the potential for a 'growth breakout' is now more plausible than ever.
Leveraging Up: Investment Strategy in a High-Leverage Era
The upfront costs of AI development, combined with delayed revenue, are pushing systemic leverage higher. This, alongside soaring government debt, is creating financial fragility. BlackRock favors private credit and infrastructure financing as more resilient, income-generating alternatives.
Tactically, the firm underweights long-dated government bonds (e.g., Treasuries), as rising leverage and capital costs make long bonds increasingly risky.
Diversification Mirage: The Illusion of Portfolio Balance
In a world dominated by major macro trends, traditional diversification strategies may mask concentrated risks. BlackRock urges investors to take active risk positions and maintain portfolio flexibility with backup plans (Plan B).
Seeking unique return sources through private markets and hedge funds is key to building resilience and adaptability in today's volatile environment.
Digital Assets: The New 'Plumbing' of the Financial System
Notably, BlackRock views digital assets — especially stablecoins — not just as speculative instruments, but as critical infrastructure in the financial system. They're evolving from crypto-native tools into bridges between traditional finance and digital liquidity.
In areas where legacy systems are slow, costly, or fragmented, stablecoins are proving their value in cross-border payments and settlements. BlackRock sees digital assets increasingly integrating into mainstream finance, with stablecoins maturing into a foundational layer that supports global liquidity flows alongside traditional financial infrastructure.