Timing Isn't Everything When Launching a Token
Dragonfly partner Haseeb recently challenged the common belief that crypto projects must launch tokens during bull markets. By analyzing Binance listing data, he found that there's little difference in annualized ROI between tokens launched in bull and bear markets — most perceived differences are just noise.
Advantages of Bear Market Launches
Launching a token during a bear market can actually offer unique advantages — less competition for talent, lower service provider costs, and reduced pressure to get listed on major exchanges. These conditions allow teams to focus more on product development than market hype.
Bull Markets Bring Short-Term Demand
On the flip side, token sales during bull markets often benefit from heightened investor interest and easier fundraising. However, Haseeb argues these advantages tend to be overestimated, with limited long-term impact on project success.
Product Quality Matters Most
His key message to founders? Focus on launching quickly and building real value. He points to Solana's 2020 launch — just four days after Bitcoin crashed during the pandemic — as proof that market timing isn't destiny. Despite launching in turmoil, Solana became one of the industry's standout projects.
For new ventures, the priority should be launching products early and iterating continuously to build lasting value, rather than waiting for perfect market conditions.