Fed Likely to Hold Rates in March, Rate Cut Bets Shift to June

Fed Rate Decision Probabilities for March

According to the latest market forecasts, there is a high probability—94.1%—that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March, with only a 5.9% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut.

Rate Cut Expectations for April and June

Looking ahead, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut by April stands at 20.5%, while the chance of holding rates steady remains at 78.5%. By June, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut rises to 49.8%, indicating growing anticipation for monetary easing.

Market Reactions and Outlook

Current data suggests that investors are cautiously assessing the Fed's rate cut timeline, with expectations gradually shifting to later months. This shift reflects ongoing uncertainty in global economic conditions and inflation trends.