Is Bitcoin Entering a New Era? Fidelity Expert Sounds Caution
Amid growing chatter that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has ended and a new structural bull market is imminent, Fidelity’s global macro director Jurrien Timmer is urging restraint. He suggests Bitcoin’s price trajectory now aligns more closely with an S-curve adoption pattern—akin to the internet’s gradual rise in the 1990s—rather than a simple power law extrapolation.
S-Curve vs. Power Law: Divergent Paths Ahead
Proponents of the post-halving rally narrative often expect explosive gains. Yet Timmer warns that such linear thinking overlooks Bitcoin’s evolving market maturity. The S-curve model implies slow early growth, rapid acceleration, then stabilization—suggesting BTC may now be entering a phase of slowing momentum.
- Key support hovers around $65,000, a level anchored by prior all-time highs
- The traditional power law trendline points to a floor near $45,000
- If consolidation persists over the next year, these two models could converge
Consolidation, Not Euphoria, May Define the Next Phase
Timmer stresses he isn’t dismissing the halving’s historical significance, but rather challenging the assumption that bear markets are obsolete. A weaker upward trend doesn’t eliminate downside risk. Without strong catalysts, extended sideways movement appears more likely than a breakout.
He adds: ‘Whether $65,000 becomes a make-or-break level depends on whether the market builds deeper fundamental conviction in the coming cycles. It may not happen next year—but it’s a development worth watching.’