Short-Term Activity Surge Drivers
JPMorgan's analysis highlights that Ethereum's recent Fusaka upgrade, by expanding block data capacity and lowering transaction fees, significantly boosted trading volumes and user activity in the short term. However, whether this spike can be sustained over the long term remains questionable.
Historical Patterns Cast Doubt
Analysts reviewed past Ethereum upgrades and found a recurring pattern: temporary activity surges followed by stagnation. This suggests that technical improvements alone may not translate into sustained increases in mainnet usage.
Multiple Pressures Weakening Mainnet Activity
- On-chain activity continues shifting to layer-2 networks like Base and Arbitrum
- Alt-chains such as Solana attract users with lower fees and higher performance
- ICOs, NFTs, and meme coin speculation have cooled significantly
- Projects like Uniswap and dYdX moving to their own or independent chains weaken the mainnet's fee and tokenomics
Outlook: Mostly a Transient Phenomenon
In summary, JPMorgan believes the increased activity from the Fusaka upgrade appears more like a temporary rebound than a structural shift. Unless Ethereum achieves significant breakthroughs in ecosystem innovation and user experience, it may struggle to counter growing competitive pressures.