Bitcoin in Mid-Cycle Phase With Room to Run
Recent analysis suggests Bitcoin is still in the middle of its current market cycle, with no signs of an imminent peak. Key metrics from on-chain and derivatives data indicate a healthy environment for further gains.
On-Chain Metrics Show Sustainable Momentum
The Realized Unrealized Profit (RUP) ratio is a critical gauge of market valuation. Historically, a 30-day average RUP above 0.70 signals an approaching top. Today, RUP sits at 0.43—firmly within the range tied to the strongest 1–2 year forward returns.
- RUP well below overheating threshold
- Current level resembles mid-2019 and late-2020, both followed by strong rallies
- Investor behavior remains rational and measured
Derivatives Sentiment Remains Balanced
Perpetual contract funding rates hover around 4.9%, far from the 10%+ levels that signal excessive leverage and euphoria. This moderate reading reflects confident but controlled bullish positioning, reducing the risk of a sharp correction.
With both structural and behavioral indicators pointing to a stable market, the path remains open for sustained upward movement in the months ahead.