How Does US-Iran Tension Impact the Euro? ING: ECB Rate Hike Bets Rise, But Euro Rally Faces Strong Headwinds

ING analysts note that escalating US-Iran tensions have unexpectedly revived market expectations for a September ECB rate hike, tightening short-term euro swap spreads. However, geopolitical risk offers limited direct support for the euro, with its path higher against the dollar remaining narrow and risks of a pullback below 1.14 persist pending clearer developments.

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