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Overnight markets were active with key developments. The Fed is likely to hold rates in July (70.1% probability), while the yen hit a 40-year low, boosting Japanese stock outlook. SpaceX discussed stock donations with the US government, OpenAI may accelerate its IPO, and the US Treasury launched a sanctions appeal portal.
Read MorePresident Trump announced U.S.-Iran talks in Doha on June 30, claiming military and oil price victories. Iran denies formal negotiations, creating diplomatic ambiguity. The meeting's significance remains unclear amid conflicting statements from both sides.
Read MoreThe yen's plunge to a 40-year low against the dollar boosts Japanese exporters and stock market prospects, but also raises import costs and household burdens. Traders are watching for potential intervention by authorities as the currency tests key levels.
Read MoreSwitzerland announces steps to implement trade commitments with the US, planning simplified recognition of US standards in sectors like medical devices and public procurement. Following initial tariff cuts, these moves aim to stabilize bilateral economic ties and provide certainty for exporters, with Switzerland urging reciprocal US action.
Read MoreThe EU and China have officially launched a Trade and Investment Consultation Mechanism. Its first meeting established four working pillars and a joint monitoring system, aiming to address market access concerns and enhance cooperation on export controls, IP, and WTO matters to stabilize global supply chains.
Read MoreDemand for the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill auction weakened significantly, with indirect bidder participation hitting its lowest level since November 2024. Record-high issuance size and market uncertainty over the Fed's policy path are seen as key factors behind the tepid response.
Read MoreLatest CME FedWatch data shows a 70.1% probability the Fed holds rates steady in July. The September outlook is more mixed, with markets pricing in possibilities for a pause, a 25-bps hike, or even a 50-bps hike, reflecting uncertainty over future inflation and economic data.
Read MoreOptions analyst Bob Lang suggests OpenAI's IPO could happen as soon as this year, driven by improved market conditions, intense investor appetite for AI assets, and positive sentiment from SpaceX's successful listing, rather than waiting until 2027.
Read MoreBlockchain analytics firm Chainalysis has proposed a new industry standard for on-chain address tracking. The draft framework outlines a two-tiered methodology for clustering addresses and assessing the reliability of findings, aiming to assist law enforcement investigations. The firm stresses the need to combine on-chain analysis with off-chain data.
Read MoreJPMorgan executives warn that stablecoins offering interest could morph into 'shadow banking' outside traditional oversight. They call for a comprehensive U.S. digital asset framework, stressing stablecoins must meet the same regulatory standards as bank deposits to mitigate systemic risks.
Read MoreThe US Treasury's OFAC has launched an online portal for sanctions appeals, allowing listed parties to submit removal requests directly. This move aims to streamline the traditionally lawyer-dependent process, enhancing efficiency and transparency amidst ongoing adjustments to US sanctions policy.
Read MoreU.S. strategic petroleum reserves have plummeted to their lowest level since May 1983, driven by massive releases to stabilize markets and strong domestic demand. Total U.S. crude inventories are now at a near 40-year low, raising significant concerns about future energy security and market stability.
Read MoreOn June 30th, all three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Nasdaq leading the charge, surging over 2%. Tech stocks powered the rally, with giants like Tesla and Google posting significant gains, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumping more than 3%, signaling strong sector momentum.
Read MoreBank of America's technical analysis chief warns the S&P 500's recent rally shows fatigue. A potential "three-wave correction" could drive the index down to 6,850 points, a 7.6% drop from current levels, urging investors to hedge risks.
Read MoreAnalysts reveal a fundamental gap in how the US and Iran interpret their current memorandum. Tehran seeks to formalize Strait of Hormuz arrangements as a binding bilateral agreement, using it as leverage. Washington views it as a short-term understanding to quickly pivot talks toward Iran's nuclear program, creating a diplomatic deadlock.
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